LUSIGNAN MFO
MACRO NOTE · No.

After the relief, the weight of AI reveals the fragilities of portfolios

THE WEEK IN 4 NUMBERS
Are you a Lusignan MFO client?
My client area →

After the relief, the weight of AI reveals the fragilities of portfolios

November 6, 2026

After the relief, the weight of AI reveals the fragilities of portfolios

On 5 November 2024, the US market suffered a sharp correction: the S&P 500 lost 4.4%, while the Nasdaq 100 collapsed by 6.4%. Semiconductors, the beating heart of the technology sector, plunged 11.2%. This slide reveals a concentration of risk far deeper than the decline figures alone suggest. It exposes the vulnerability of a global economy built on a single investment cycle: that of data centres for artificial intelligence.

Key takeaways

  • The 5-6 November correction shows that sector and geographic diversification masks a shared dependence on data-centre spending.
  • Longer depreciation periods, compressed margins and the high indebtedness of chip suppliers weaken valuations that are already stretched.
  • Financing mechanisms amplify market moves beyond the mere reassessment of earnings prospects.

The scale of the correction: beyond the figures

On 5 November, all eleven S&P 500 sectors declined, but ten of them held up better than the broad index. Technology, for its part, lost 8%, while communications, utilities and consumer staples posted losses of less than 1%. The next day, the contagion spread to Taiwan, where the index closed down 4.5%, dragging Asian component suppliers with it.

This apparently sector-driven dynamic carries a deeper meaning: the relative performance of other sectors was not enough to stabilise the broad index. Diversification between the United States and Asia offered only limited protection. The reason: the earnings of Asian suppliers depend, to a large extent, on the same data-centre spending as those of US manufacturers.

Three underlying tensions

The investment timeline creates uncertainty

The prospect of additional constraints on data centres threatens the pace of chip orders. If buyers—mainly cloud and AI giants—decide to spread out their build-outs, this would preserve their cash. But for semiconductor suppliers, the opposite applies: a slower pace would have a decisive impact on capacity tightness, prices and margins. When earnings prospects recede further into the future, they also weigh on present valuations.

Operational disappointments are piling up

Investors were already worried about high spending, indebtedness and longer payback periods. The recent releases from Qualcomm and Arm added an operational dimension to these structural concerns. The 5 November election accelerated a reassessment that had begun before the vote, acting as a catalyst for a correction that was already latent.

Financing mechanisms amplify the moves

Margin calls triggered forced selling, notably in Asia, where leveraged positions caught in the correction generated further liquidations. The scale of the decline therefore does not measure only the deterioration in earnings prospects: it also reflects the mechanics of financial markets, where falling prices force the realisation of additional losses to meet loan collateral requirements.

True diversification requires different engines

Over the two US sessions, some sectors showed real resilience. Communications held on to a 2.9% gain and consumer staples 2.6%. These figures are not trivial: they prove that divergence exists when the economic engines truly differ.

In Asia, India held up better than its neighbours. Several factors explain this: lower exposure to chipmakers, the retreat in oil prices (favourable to net importers) and the return of foreign capital. The hope of lower US tariff pressure also supports expectations for the Indian market, even though no relief has yet been secured.

The lesson for portfolios

The November correction illustrates a fundamental principle: several sectors and several countries can conceal the same underlying dependence. A geographic or sector allocation that looks reassuring on the surface can prove illusory if all the components of the portfolio benefit from the same economic cycle.

True diversification requires examining not only sectors and regions, but also earnings drivers and financing methods. Portfolios diversified by driver—some exposed to the AI cycle, others to real yields or defensive cash flows—would have cushioned this correction better.

This is not investment advice.

Link to the article:
note-macro-vague-democrate-tech-en-correction-le-marche-cherche-de-nouveaux-moteurs
Democratic wave, tech in correction: the market looks for new engines
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---09-novembre-2026
Charts of the week - 9 November 2026
apres-le-soulagement-le-poids-de-l-ia-revele-les-fragilites-des-portefeuilles
After the relief, the weight of AI reveals the fragilities of portfolios
rotation-sectorielle-quand-le-marche-change-de-moteurs
Sector rotation: when the market changes engines
apres-l-election-americaine-qui-paiera-la-facture-du-pouvoir-d-achat
After the US election: who will pay the purchasing-power bill?
petrolieres-comment-le-raffinage-redynamise-les-resultats-energetiques
Oil majors: how refining is reviving energy earnings
les-midterms-2026-entre-avantage-democrate-et-risques-budgetaires
The 2026 Midterms: between a Democratic advantage and budgetary risks
note-macro-l-ia-face-a-l-addition-le-marche-fait-le-tri-sans-quitter-les-actions
AI faces the bill: the market sorts the wheat from the chaff, without leaving equities
la-tech-face-au-dilemme-du-capital-entre-rentabilite-promise-et-investissements-massifs
Tech faces the capital dilemma: between promised profitability and massive investment
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---02-novembre-2026-2
Charts of the week - 2 November 2026
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---02-novembre-2026
Charts of the week - 2 November 2026
marches-et-economie-la-semaine-du-26-au-30-octobre-2026-entre-correction-technologique-et-attentes-de-rentabilite
Markets and the economy: the week of 26 to 30 October 2026, between a tech correction and profitability expectations
microsoft-et-alphabet-quand-la-croissance-de-l-ia-se-heurte-aux-realites-financieres
Microsoft and Alphabet: when AI growth collides with financial realities
marche-petrolier-quand-les-flux-reviennent-mais-les-prix-resistent
Oil market: when flows return but prices hold firm
marches-americains-quand-la-securite-retrouve-un-prix
US markets: when safety gets its price back
election-bresilienne-quand-les-marches-se-trompent-et-paient-le-prix-fort
Brazilian election: when markets get it wrong and pay a heavy price
note-macro-france-et-ia-deux-chocs-de-positionnement-des-obligations-qui-protegent-a-nouveau
France and AI: two positioning shocks, bonds that protect again
le-credit-reevalue-l-ia-quand-la-volatilite-cachee-remet-en-question-la-rentabilite-des-projets
Credit reprices AI: when hidden volatility calls project profitability into question
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---26-octobre-2026
Charts of the week - 26 October 2026
dechets-plastiques-collecter-ne-suffit-pas-a-recycler
Plastic waste: collecting is not the same as recycling
chine-croissance-stabilisee-desequilibres-persistants
China: stabilised growth, persistent imbalances
france-quand-le-malaise-economique-devient-un-risque-financier
France: when economic malaise becomes a financial risk
note-macro-le-capital-se-rencherit-le-marche-fait-le-tri
Capital is getting more expensive: the market sorts the wheat from the chaff
le-s-p-500-change-constamment-pourquoi-la-gestion-active-reste-pertinente
The S&P 500 is constantly changing: why active management remains relevant
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---19-octobre-2026
Charts of the week - 19 October 2026
coreweave-quand-la-dette-de-l-ia-rencontre-les-limites-du-financement
CoreWeave: when AI debt meets the limits of financing
banques-americaines-une-economie-resistante-face-a-des-fragilites-emergentes
US banks: a resilient economy facing emerging fragilities
croissance-mondiale-confirmee-marges-de-securite-reduites-l-analyse-du-fmi
Global growth confirmed, safety margins reduced: the IMF's analysis
cac-40-depasser-le-retard-pour-identifier-l-opportunite
CAC 40: looking beyond the lag to identify the opportunity
q3-2024-une-croissance-portee-par-l-ia-americaine-mais-des-risques-de-concentration-et-de-revision-des-multiples
Q3 2024: growth driven by US AI, but concentration and multiple-revision risks
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---12-octobre-2026
Charts of the week - 12 October 2026
petrole-pourquoi-les-menaces-geopolitiques-font-moins-bouger-les-prix
Oil: why geopolitical threats move prices less
bresil-le-marche-anticipe-une-reforme-budgetaire-et-des-taux-plus-bas
Brazil: the market anticipates fiscal reform and lower rates
alimentation-l-accumulation-de-chocs-menace-progressivement-les-stocks-mondiaux
Food: the accumulation of shocks gradually threatens global stocks
le-g7-libere-100-millions-de-barils-une-solution-temporaire-face-a-la-penurie-de-diesel
The G7 releases 100 million barrels: a temporary fix for the diesel shortage
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---06-octobre-2026
Charts of the week - 6 October 2026
note-macro-taux-au-sommet-ormuz-toujours-ferme-la-defiance-a-un-prix
Rates at the top, Hormuz still closed: distrust has a price
la-dette-francaise-face-au-risque-systemique-quand-la-trajectoire-perd-en-credibilite
French debt and systemic risk: when the trajectory loses credibility
marches-et-macro-economie-la-semaine-du-28-septembre-au-2-octobre-2026
Markets and macroeconomics: the week of 28 September to 2 October 2026
la-relance-chinoise-financer-l-investissement-sans-restaurer-la-confiance-des-consommateurs
China's stimulus: financing investment without restoring consumer confidence
le-baril-a-100-dollars-quand-la-securite-des-routes-maritimes-determine-le-prix-du-petrole
Oil at $100: when the security of shipping routes sets the price of crude
anthropic-en-introduction-en-bourse-quand-la-croissance-exceptionnelle-rencontre-des-modeles-economiques-fragiles
Anthropic's IPO: when exceptional growth meets fragile business models
la-courbe-des-taux-en-2026-un-signal-a-interpreter-avec-prudence
The yield curve in 2026: a signal to interpret with caution
note-macro-l-emploi-rassure-mais-taux-longs-et-spread-francais-durcissent-le-financement
Jobs reassure, but long-term rates and the French spread tighten financing
visite-diplomatique-etats-unis-chine-une-treve-sans-rapprochement-reel
US–China state visit: a truce without any real rapprochement
graphiques-de-la-semaine-2026-09-28
Charts of the week – 28 September 2026
l-economie-americaine-refuse-d-atterrir-une-expansion-inflationniste-sans-ralentissement
The US economy refuses to land: an inflationary expansion with no slowdown
nvidia-apres-2028-quand-la-croissance-rencontre-les-doutes-du-marche
Nvidia after 2028: when growth meets market doubts
groenland-l-accord-de-defense-2024-redessine-la-presence-militaire-occidentale-en-arctique
Greenland: the 2024 defence agreement redraws the Western military presence in the Arctic
les-benefices-resistent-face-a-la-hausse-des-taux-un-equilibre-fragile-pour-les-marches
Earnings Hold Up Against Rising Rates: A Fragile Balance for Markets
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---22-septembre-2026
Charts of the week - 22 September 2026
note-macro-le-sell-off-obligataire-est-la-l-ia-porte-wall-street-les-taux-rencherissent-tout-le-reste
The bond sell-off is here: AI carries Wall Street, rates make everything else more expensive
la-mondialisation-change-de-logique-de-l-efficacite-a-la-resilience
Globalisation changes its logic: from efficiency to resilience
la-fed-releve-ses-taux-un-changement-de-regime-economique-plutot-qu-une-simple-pause
The Fed raises rates: a change of economic regime rather than a simple pause
canada-et-l-union-europeenne-vers-un-second-pilier-strategique-pas-une-substitution
Canada and the European Union: towards a second strategic pillar, not a substitute
cybersecurite-et-ia-entre-risques-reels-et-repositionnement-strategique
Cybersecurity and AI: between real risks and strategic repositioning
diesel-la-penurie-de-raffinage-qui-frappe-le-transport-mondial
Diesel: the refining shortage hitting global transport
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---15-septembre-2026
Charts of the week - 15 September 2026
note-macro-la-fed-resserre-les-taux-longs-touchent-5-les-marches-deviennent-selectifs
The Fed tightens, long rates touch 5%: markets become selective
cuivre-entre-volatilite-tarifaire-et-fondamentaux-structurels-solides
Copper: between tariff volatility and solid structural fundamentals
bilan-des-marches-7-11-septembre-2026-entre-hausse-des-taux-et-choc-energetique
Market review: 7-11 September 2026, between rising rates and an energy shock
banques-centrales-pourquoi-relever-les-taux-face-a-un-choc-energetique
Central banks: why raise rates in the face of an energy shock?
la-chine-face-aux-lecons-japonaises-sortir-d-une-crise-immobiliere-sans-accelerateur
China and the lessons from Japan: exiting a property crisis without an accelerator
marches-rationnels-ou-complaisants-quand-les-valorisations-laissent-peu-de-place-a-l-erreur
Rational or complacent markets? When valuations leave little room for error
allemagne-la-production-industrielle-recule-mais-la-reprise-reste-en-cours
Germany: industrial production falls, but the recovery remains under way
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---08-aout-2026
Charts of the week - 8 September 2026
note-macro-le-choc-energetique-rencherit-le-financement-29d80
The energy shock raises the cost of financing
le-fonds-souverain-norvegien-reorganise-son-exposition-aux-obligations-americaines
Norway's sovereign wealth fund reorganises its exposure to US bonds
semaine-du-31-aout-au-4-septembre-2026-wall-street-resiste-tandis-que-l-europe-recule-face-a-la-hausse-energetique
Week of 31 August to 4 September 2026: Wall Street holds up while Europe retreats in the face of rising energy prices
emploi-americain-entre-rebond-rassurant-et-prudence-de-la-fed
US employment: between a reassuring rebound and Fed caution
septembre-en-bourse-une-saisonnalite-reelle-mais-pas-une-fatalite
September on the stock market: a real seasonality, but not a foregone conclusion
apple-john-ternus-peut-il-poursuivre-l-heritage-de-tim-cook
Apple: can John Ternus carry on Tim Cook's legacy?
petrole-venezuelien-ce-que-change-reellement-l-accord-entre-washington-et-caracas
Venezuelan oil: what the agreement between Washington and Caracas really changes
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---01-septembre-2026
Charts of the week - 1 September 2026
fed-kevin-warsh-clarifie-la-doctrine-sans-devoiler-le-calendrier-des-taux
Fed: Kevin Warsh clarifies the doctrine, without revealing the rate timetable
bilan-hebdo-24-28-aout-2026-l-ia-resiste-face-aux-politiques-monetaires-plus-restrictives
Weekly Review: 24-28 August 2026 — AI holds up against tighter monetary policies
gestion-active-vs-passive-au-dela-des-statistiques-une-question-de-contexte
Active vs Passive Management: beyond the statistics, a question of context
amerique-latine-quand-la-puissance-economique-chinoise-defie-l-influence-politique-americaine
Latin America: when Chinese economic power challenges American political influence
etats-unis-canada-quand-la-negociation-commerciale-devient-un-bras-de-fer-geopolitique
United States–Canada: when trade negotiation becomes a geopolitical standoff
europe-centrale-du-sous-traitant-allemand-au-carrefour-industriel-europeen
Central Europe: from German subcontractor to European industrial crossroads
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---25-aout-2026
Charts of the week - 25 August 2026
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---18-aout-2026
Les graphiques de la semaine - 18 août 2026
los-angeles-lakers-12-5-md-pour-un-actif-du-xxi-siecle
Los Angeles Lakers : 12,5 Md$ pour un actif du XXIᵉ siècle
bilan-hebdo---semaine-du-10-au-14-aout-le-risque-se-deplace-de-linflation-vers-la-demande
Bilan Hebdo – Semaine du 10 au 14 août : le risque se déplace de l'inflation vers la demande
gpfg-le-fonds-souverain-qui-ne-ressemble-pas-aux-autres
GPFG : le fonds souverain qui ne ressemble pas aux autres
lia-vient-elle-de-mettre-fin-a-40-ans-de-deflation-informatique
L'IA vient-elle de mettre fin à 40 ans de déflation informatique ?
resultats-us-t2-des-records-difficiles-a-extrapoler
Résultats US T2 : des records difficiles à extrapoler
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---11-aout
Les graphiques de la semaine - 11 août 2026
les-drones-redistribuent-la-puissance-militaire
Les drones redistribuent la puissance militaire
or-le-rebond-repose-sur-davantage-quun-simple-refuge
Or : le rebond repose sur davantage qu'un simple refuge
bilan-hebdo---semaine-du-3-au-7-aout-les-marches-obtiennent-ce-quils-voulaient
Bilan Hebdo – Semaine du 3 au 7 août : les marchés obtiennent ce qu'ils voulaient
rhin-a-sec-un-choc-logistique-au-coeur-de-lindustrie-europeenne
Rhin à sec : un choc logistique au cœur de l'industrie européenne
pourquoi-washington-est-venu-au-secours-du-yen
Pourquoi Washington est venu au secours du yen
apres-les-incendies-a-quand-la-prevention
Après les incendies, à quand la prévention ?
les-graphiques-de-la-semaine---04-aout
Les graphiques de la semaine - 04 août 2026
magnificent-seven-lia-entre-dans-lage-du-rendement
Magnificent Seven : l'IA entre dans l'âge du rendement
depenses-finales-privees-le-vrai-signal-derriere-un-pib-decevant
Dépenses finales privées : le vrai signal derrière un PIB décevant
bilan-hebdo---semaine-du-27-au-31-juillet-les-marches-trient-le-bon-grain-de-livraie
Bilan Hebdo – Semaine du 27 au 31 juillet : les marchés trient le bon grain de l'ivraie
semi-conducteurs-et-memoires-la-fin-de-leuphorie
Semi-conducteurs et mémoires : la fin de l'euphorie ?
tesla-spacex-une-fusion-est-elle-inevitable
Tesla–SpaceX : une fusion est-elle inévitable ?
Also this week
Charts of the week
See on LinkedIn →
Our publications this week
No items found.
All market news →
Find your reports and documents
Your Lusignan client area, available at any time.
Go to my client area →
Lusignan Multi Family Office — This is not investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Abonnez-vous à notre newsletter

Merci ! Votre demande d’abonnement a bien été envoyée.
Une erreur est survenue. Merci de cocher la case « Je ne suis pas un robot » puis de réessayer.